The Ledger
Forecasts you can check
- Forecasts
- 3
- Open
- 3
- Hits / misses
- None yet
- First result 30 November 2026.
- Average Brier score
- None yet
- Lower is better. 0.25 = coin flip.
| Question | Odds (yes) | Made on | Resolves on | Source | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ghana's December 2026 headline inflation (year on year, GSS) be below 8%? | 85% | 15 October 2026 | 15 January 2027 | Ghana Statistical Service, December 2026 CPI release | Open | — |
| Will the Bank of Ghana policy rate be below 14% after the last MPC meeting of 2026? | 30% | 15 October 2026 | 30 November 2026 | Bank of Ghana, MPC press release | Open | — |
| Will Ghana's 2026 real GDP growth be 5% or more in the first full-year GSS estimate? | 80% | 15 October 2026 | 30 April 2027 | Ghana Statistical Service, 2026 annual GDP estimate | Open | — |
Will Ghana's December 2026 headline inflation (year on year, GSS) be below 8%?
85%- Made on
- 15 October 2026
- Resolves on
- 15 January 2027
- Result
- Open
- Brier
- —
Will the Bank of Ghana policy rate be below 14% after the last MPC meeting of 2026?
30%- Made on
- 15 October 2026
- Resolves on
- 30 November 2026
- Result
- Open
- Brier
- —
Will Ghana's 2026 real GDP growth be 5% or more in the first full-year GSS estimate?
80%- Made on
- 15 October 2026
- Resolves on
- 30 April 2027
- Result
- Open
- Brier
- —
How scoring works
Each forecast is a yes-or-no question with a probability: how likely I think the answer is yes. A forecast at 70% should come true about 7 times in 10.
When it resolves, it gets a Brier score: (probability − outcome)², where the outcome is 1 if it happened and 0 if it didn't. A perfect call scores 0. Saying 50% every time scores 0.25. The worst possible score is 1.
The running score is the average across every resolved forecast. Lower is better. Forecasts are never edited after they go up. A forecast marked void could not be settled, so it gets no score.
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